Wall Street analysts predict that the iPad will move 4 million units by this year and double that number in 2011. I have five big explanations for why it will be Waterworld and not Avatar, but that list is for tomorrow. Today, I want to examine why the iPad is destined for big things.


1. Marketing and Consumption: aside from actual need, why do people buy anything? Because they want to. Our culture is about consumption, and the cleverest way to feed addicted consumers is to advertise. Few companies can market products like Apple can. Even if Joe Schmo does not need the iPad, he will be tempted by the ads.

2. Fanboyism: Apple products (especially Macs) are not just computers or electronics; they are an experience. Apple is a social phenomena. Its fans congregate together like devotees to a religion. While I am a huge fan, I fall shy of worshiping the company, but others are not so restrained. Many fanboys will buy the iPad just because it is like a new revelation of the Apple cult. Apple is reporting record revenues in an economy where many other PC manufacturers are struggling to remain afloat. Apple zealots are vocal, passionate, and most alarming of all, they are growing in number.

3. Slick Apple Design: although the iPad does not run OS X, it does operate a modified and enhanced version of the iPhone operating system, OS 3.2, which is as pretty as Snow Leopard but is slim enough to be buttery smooth for a low-powered tablet. People will appreciate Apple’s multi-touch excellence when they try other tablets and phones that just cannot come close to its accuracy and fluidity. In addition to marketing, beauty sells, and the iPad is lovelier than any e-reader or tablet that I have seen to date. The aluminum unibody is svelte and supposedly feels very robust, while the IPS LED LCD is significantly higher quality than on other portables.

4. Myriad App Support: 140,000 applications/games to chose from is an incredible start for a brand new gadget. A lot of developers are seemingly very excited about programming for the iPad too, and there is no other e-reader with this much app support. Only Windows 7 tablets can lay claim to a wider selection of programs and games, but fast Windows 7 tablets are several times more expensive than the iPad. With sales of over 75 million iPhones and iTouch iPods, and 3 billion apps downloaded from the App Store, the iPad has a gigantic user base already installed.

5. It Fills an Established Market & a Growing Niche: around 3 million e-readers were sold in 2009, and 7 million more could move in 2010. Netbook shipments were 33.3 million units in 2008 and 39.7 in 2009, and the upward climb is likely to persist. Assuming that 20% of e-reader buyers are willing to spend extra for a more versatile mini-computing tablet reader, and even 10% of netbook buyers are willing to accept slower speed but a more portable machine like the iPad, then there are potentially 5.5 million customers that Apple can steal away from markets that already exist.

The Wild Card - Education: Apple wants to get the iPad into post-secondary institutions. If Apple can strike extensive deals with a large number of publishers, then $499 is inconsequential for college students who sometimes have to spend that much on books for each course. If the iPad can replace all or just a sizable share of textbooks, then millions of students will buy it.

>>> Top 5 Reasons Why the iPad Will Be a Bust